Biden is Bluffing --- The statement contradicts a long-standing US policy of recognizing the Two-China policy. The Biden remarks further the overt US policy of containing China. This is not new but a continuation of the Trump trade-war with China. This policy of containment worked with the former Soviet Union because the world was bipolar. Today the world is multipolar only if China and Russia are considered as two independent blocs.

China and Russia are unified in their opposition to any country intent on pursuing unilateral interests at their expense. So the world has returned to a bipolar power arrangement. As Biljana has pointed out Taiwan is not a NATO member.

Under US law Taiwan’s status is defined as a Major Non-NATO Ally (MNNA). This does not include a mutual-defense pact but still confers a variety of military and financial advantages that otherwise are not obtainable by non-NATO countries.

NATO’s computer simulations all result in a US defeat in the South China Sea. If there was a war involving China, it may be damaged but not defeated; while the costs to the US would be considerable. The Biden commitment to Taiwan is puffery.

The best that the US can hope for is a stalemate. This option is implicit in China’s announcement of its hypersonic nuclear-powered glider missile capable of reaching the US.

Source author: John D. Hipsley jhipsley@igc.org