- Oct 2021
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learn.diplomacy.edu learn.diplomacy.edu
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decision-making
Comfort with uncertainty --- In addition to being the idea that scientific evidence/consensus is always subject to change when new data/evidence is presented, another element of being trained as a scientist that I think is relevant here is being trained to be comfortable with a degree of uncertainty, and being able to express that uncertainty precisely in a way that is understandable to other scientists but often seems unclear or misunderstood by non-scientists especially policy-makers. In my experience working with US-based policy makers, I often found that people on the policy side wanted clarity or certainty on issues that when thinking as a scientist have more nuance or a reasonable degree of uncertainty. A policy maker may want to hear "We know that climate change is being driven by fossil fuel emissions" but a scientist advising them may only be willing to say "We are reasonably sure that the most likely driver of climate change based on all available evidence..." and that response won't be seen as a certain enough piece of evidence for a policy maker to then act upon even though it is a perfectly reasonable degree of certainty for a researcher, if that makes sense.
Source author: Ryan Haupt ryan.haupt@nysf.com
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