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  1. Jan 2024
    1. he top five most-suggested categories were: “Computerand Mathematical” (91 write-in answers in this category), “Life, Physical, and Social Science” (77 answers), “HealthcarePractitioners and Technical” (56), “Management” (49), and “Arts, Design, Entertainment, Sports, and Media”

      predictions on occupations likely to be among the last automatable

    2. predicted a 50% chance of FAOL by 2116, down 48 years from 2164 in the 2022 survey

      Timeframe prediction for full automation of labour: 50% chance it would happen by 2116.

      But what does this prediction - and the definition of full automation of labour - mean in the context of an ever-evolving work/occupation landscape? What about occupations that might not exist today? Can we predict how those might or might not be automated?

    3. ay an occupation becomes fully automatable when unaided machines can accomplish it betterand more cheaply than human workers. Ignore aspects of occupations for which being a human isintrinsically advantageous, e.g. being accepted as a jury member.Think feasibility, not adoption.[. . . ]Say we have reached ‘full automation of labor’ when all occupations are fully automatable. That is,when for any occupation, machines could be built to carry out the task better and more cheaply thanhuman workers

      Q: What is full automation of labour?

    4. the chance of unaided machines outperforming humans in every possible task was estimated at 10%by 2027, and 50% by 2047.

      Survey: 10% chance that machines become better than humans in 'every possible task by 2027, but 50% by 2047.

    5. six tasks expected to take longer than ten years were: “After spending time in a virtual world, output the differentialequations governing that world in symbolic form” (12 years), “Physically install the electrical wiring in a new home”(17 years), “Research and write” (19 years) or “Replicate” (12 years) “a high-quality ML paper,” “Prove mathematicaltheorems that are publishable in top mathematics journals today” (22 years), and solving “long-standing unsolvedproblems in mathematics” such as a Millennium Prize problem (27 years)

      Expectations on the tasks feasible to be taken over than AI later than 10 years from now

    6. the chance of all humanoccupations becoming fully automatable was forecast to reach 10% by 2037, and 50% as late as 2116(compared to 2164 in the 2022 survey).
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