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  1. Jan 2024
    1. etween 41.2% and 51.4% of respondents estimated a greater than 10% chance of humanextinction or severe disempowerment

      predictions on the likelihood of human extinction

    2. Only one trait had a median answer below ‘even chance’: “Take actions to attain power.” While there wasno consensus even on this trait, it’s notable that it was deemed least likely, because it is arguably the most sinister, beingkey to an argument for extinction-level danger from AI


    3. While68.3% thought good outcomes from superhuman AI are more likely than bad, of these net optimists48% gave at least a 5% chance of extremely bad outcomes such as human extinction, and 59% of netpessimists gave 5% or more to extremelygoodoutcomes. Between 37.8% and 51.4% of respondentsgave at least a 10% chance to advanced AI leading to outcomes as bad as human extinction.

      Survey results on AI extinction risks. Quite interesting

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