- Dec 2022
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www.aspistrategist.org.au www.aspistrategist.org.au
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There is increasing evidence that women’s participation in decision-making results in more durable peace agreements, increased trust and collaboration across political agendas, and more comprehensive and nuanced information gathering to better inform decision-making.
Interesting statement. Is there any evidence and research supporting it?
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Australia is a signatory to the WPS agenda, first codified in 2000 by UN Security Council resolution 1325.
||AndrijanaG||||VladaR|| Who is covering gender in our team. WE should include this resolution.
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UN women, peace and security (WPS) agenda
||VladaR|| It seems to be part of NZ initiative as well for cybersecurity and gender.
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From Australia’s participation in the UN open-ended working group on reducing space threats,
||sorina|| Do we have any info on this working group. It is supposed to work in Geneva?
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therecord.media therecord.media
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Australia signed a bilateral security agreement with Vanuatu on Tuesday which will include cooperation over cybersecurity matters, the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) announced. The agreement was signed as Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong visited the island nation in the wake of a severe ransomware attack in November. The attack left the Pacific island’s government in disarray; internal systems were completely unavailable impacting a host of emergency services, alongside schools and hospitals. The Sydney Morning Herald reported that officials from the Australian Cybersecurity Centre assisted Vanuatu’s government in rebuilding the systems following the attack. The two countries have historically had strong diplomatic ties. The pact involves cooperation in a range of areas, including humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, as well environmental and resource security, maritime and aviation safety and security, as well as defense and policing, according to DFAT. It “reflects Australia and Vanuatu’s ongoing commitment to working together as members of the Pacific family to address shared security challenges,” said Australia’s deputy prime minister Richard Marles. Australia, which is rewriting its own national security strategy following the ransomware attack on health insurance business Medibank, has ramped up its diplomatic work in the region as it competes with China. Beijing attempted — although ultimately failed in May — to sign regional trade and security agreements with the 10 Pacific Island states it has diplomatic relations with. An unexpected security deal between China and the Solomon Islands in April provoked enormous concern — particularly plans that would permit China to create a military base just 2,000 km from Australia itself. Following the announcement of the agreement, the Solomon Islands’ prime minister Manasseh Sogavare stressed that he would not allow a Chinese military base in the country. He said the agreement covered the contingency of “a gap” in the kinds of security that Australia can provide: “When it comes to security issues in the region, we will call on them [the Australians] first.” The details of China’s agreement with the Solomon Islands have not been published, although a leaked draft was posted online revealing broad access to the Solomon Islands was being offered to China’s military and police. Australia’s agreement with Vanuatu “will be publicly available,” said Wong on Tuesday, because both nations are “committed to democracy, accountability and transparency.”
TITLE: Australia and Vanuatu conclude pact on defense, including cybersecurity
CONTENT: The agreement includes cybersecurity cooperation. Australia already helped Vanuatu after November randsomwere attack that impacted emergency services, schools and hospitals.
This agreement is part of Australia's renewed push to strengthen its relationships with other countries in the Pacific in the context of increasing presence of China.
EXCERPT: Australia strengthens cybersecurity cooperation in the Pacific region by singing safety pact with Vanuatu.
TOPIC: cybersecurity
TREND: n/a
PROCESS: n/a
DATE: 12 December 2022
COUNTRY: Australia, Vanuatu
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www.reddit.com www.reddit.com
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If a search engine sees a glut of raw AI content, then the page will receive a penalty point.
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Google is paying more and more attention to video content, this is a truth that you just need to come to terms with
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www.newyorker.com www.newyorker.com
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the U.S. intelligence apparatus has made quantum decryption a priority, regardless of market fluctuations.
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Even the most optimistic analysts believe that quantum computing will not earn meaningful profits in the next five years, and pessimists caution that it could take more than a decade.
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The Quantum Insider, an industry trade publication, has tallied more than six hundred companies in the sector, and another estimate suggests that thirty billion dollars has been invested in developing quantum technology worldwide.
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“We have good reason to believe that a quantum computer would be able to efficiently simulate any process that occurs in nature,” Preskill wrote, a few years ago.
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Kitaev’s error-correction scheme is one of the most promising approaches to building a functional quantum computer,
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Entanglement is to computing what nuclear fission was to explosives: a strange property of the subatomic world that could be harnessed to create technology of unprecedented power. If entanglement could be enacted at the scale of everyday objects, it would seem like a magic trick. Imagine that you and a friend flip two entangled quarters, without looking at the results. The outcome of the coin flips will be determined only when you peek at the coins. If you inspect your quarter, and see that it came up heads, your friend’s quarter will automatically come up tails. If your friend looks and sees that her quarter shows heads, your quarter will now show tails. This property holds true no matter how far you and your friend travel from each other. If you were to travel to Germany—or to Jupiter—and look at your quarter, your friend’s quarter would instantaneously reveal the opposite result.
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Earlier this year, the Biden Administration announced that it was moving toward new, quantum-proof encryption standards that offer protection from Shor’s algorithm.
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the physicists realized that whether an electron behaved more like a particle or more like a wave depended on whether or not someone was observing it.
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A full-scale quantum computer could crack our current encryption protocols, essentially breaking the Internet.
||sorina|| Is something wrong with me? The main success of quantum computing would be to break encryption?
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Quantum computers, like the ones Google is building, use qubits, which can take a value of zero or one, and also a complex combination of zero and one at the same time.
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theconversation.com theconversation.com
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Outer space talks are a welcome addition to the US-Africa Leaders Summit - what’s on the table
@sorina this text links our research on Africa and space diplomacy. It will be discussed next week at the US-Africa summit.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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“The Banshees of Inisherin”
to watch
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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from rule-breaker to rule-maker, he will need to defy both the business challenges to his super-app ambitions and expectations of what he might do as the boss of one.
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it is neither as vast as Meta nor as staid as Microsoft.
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requires trust from regulators, consumers and the developers who choose to operate their businesses within a platform
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Another obstacle is trust
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to bypass the Apple ecosystem in the first place.
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According to The Information, a news website, Microsoft has considered building its own super-app, a platform combining shopping, messaging and web search that would dip further into consumers’ wallets as its business customers slow spending.
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By contrast it is hard to imagine WeChat’s users abandoning the app if it was removed from Apple’s iPhones in China.
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Twitter will need to be far bigger before it can begin giving orders to the rule-makers.
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any attempt to expand Twitter to integrate a payments system or create a platform for “mini programs” to run within the app would ignite a more fundamental conflict.
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The total fees it collects from its app store are not disclosed but are thought to make up a large chunk of a services segment with revenues of $78bn a year.
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Apple, which makes more than half of America’s smartphones, is the incumbent gatekeeper to the country’s eyeballs
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The greatest impediment to super-apps are, unsurprisingly, app stores
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Most involve fitting as many closely related services inside the same app as possible.
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in 2017 cemented the platform as the real operating system of the Chinese internet
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Launched in 2011, WeChat rode the wave of Chinese smartphone adoption. Today it boasts 1.3bn users and stunning ubiquity
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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provides a surprisingly upbeat history of death
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The Equality Machine. By Orly Lobel. PublicAffairs; 368 pages; $30 and £25
to read
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she argues that the answer is
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This author agrees with
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Beyond Measure. By James Vincent. W.W. Norton; 432 pages; $32.50. Faber; £18.99
to read
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An Immense World. By Ed Yong. Random House; 464 pages; $30. Vintage; £17.99
to read
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this book lifts the shroud on
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Elusive. By Frank Close. Basic Books; 304 pages; $26. Allen Lane; £25
to read
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A compelling account of
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A tour d’horizon of cell theory, by
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Papyrus. By Irene Vallejo. Translated by Charlotte Whittle. Knopf; 464 pages; $35. Hodder & Stoughton; £25
to buy
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The author makes a powerful case
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clear thinking is the key.
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A novel about
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The Serpent Coiled in Naples.
book to read
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how close to inhumanity humanity always is
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The broad subject of this poignant book is what happens
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Mostly it confirms the view that
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An elegant account of
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This portrait gives him
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Its story makes clear how
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A monumental study
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it provides insights into how
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Written with wit, style and a formidable command of detail
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A magnificent history of corporations
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For Profit. By William Magnuson. Basic Books; 368 pages; $32 and £25
to read
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In this authoritative book a former journalist
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Books about
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This timely book
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Chip War. By Chris Miller. Scribner; 464 pages; $30. Simon & Schuster; £20
to order
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The author, a journalist at the Financial Times, was
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The dramatic story
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A fortuitously timed history of
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It is striking
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It reads like
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A meticulous narration
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A chronicle of the lif
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A look at why
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personal account
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The author shows
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The author speaks
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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But that analysis underestimates how deeply neoliberal ideas took root across both the left and the right, at least in the Anglosphere.
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In Mr DeLong’s version of history, key events are often the product of chance rather than structural forces.
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a duel between the insights of Friedrich von Hayek, an Austrian economist who extolled the power of the free market, and Karl Polanyi, a Hungarian thinker who warned that the market was there to serve man, not man the market.
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Yet building harmonious societies out of material abundance has proved maddeningly difficult.
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a land of plenty that prior generations could scarcely have imagined.
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the modern corporation, the research laboratory and globalisation
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Mr DeLong, by contrast, argues that the period from 1870 to 2010 is best seen as a coherent whole: the first era, he argues, in which historical developments were overwhelmingly driven by economic ones.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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It turns out that gpus, which were first designed in the 1990s to improve video games, are also excellent at running artificial-intelligence (AI) models. Intel recently launched its first set of stand-alone gpus to compete with Nvidia as well as amd, which also makes them.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Book on evolution of 'Chip war'.
@jovan
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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||sorina|| A bit more insights on Africa and taxtion on digital transactions. There is more dynamism than reproted.
||Jovan||
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But there was a twist: the number of tweets about protests and rallies increased. Like death, taxes are certain. Their effects are not.
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This kind of messy bargaining could eventually strengthen the contract between citizens and states.
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In Uganda the total value of mobile-money transactions dropped by a quarter when the state imposed a 1% tax on them in 2018, taking 18 months to recover
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Ghana’s e-levy, in force since May, imposes a 1.5% tax on most electronic money transfers, such as those that citizens zap through their phones. Cameroon brought in a similar charge in January. Nigeria is considering a 5% levy on calls, messages and mobile internet.
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African countries have proposed that a tax convention be developed at the un, where they hope to have more of a say.
any resource?
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But many African countries worry it is too complex and would be difficult to implement in countries with low administrative capacity, says Thulani Shongwe of the African Tax Administration Forum, a network of tax officials.
Institutional capacity as limit to imiplement OECD tax deal.
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A global tax deal was agreed to by 130 countries last year with the aim of forcing multinational companies to pay more tax in the places where they make their sales, irrespective of where they register their assets.
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Now they see untapped potential in new sectors which barely existed 20 years ago, including social media, e-commerce, mobile internet and mobile money.
chance for taxing Internet industry.
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Levies on mobile and internet services have sparked street protests in Uganda, cabinet squabbles in Nigeria and a parliamentary brawl in Ghana.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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And China imports $400bn-worth of chips a year, more than any other country. Though private companies and allied countries might be happy to go along with the Americans now, the amount of money being left on the table by not selling to Chinese customers may start to rankle.
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The list includes chips used for artificial intelligence (ai), software to design advanced chips and the machine tools to manufacture them. Selling such things to China is now barred without explicit permission from America’s government. Rulebreakers risk being cut off from American tech themselves.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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China’s growing isolation—both self-imposed and enforced by restrictions like America’s new rules on tech exports—is far more severe.
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American politicians do not seem to understand the advantage conferred by their country’s openness, however.
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Less than half as many Chinese received visas to study abroad in the first half of 2022 as in the first half of 2019. This pulling apart is bad for the world, but China may suffer more. It does not have as diverse a pool of researchers as the West. According to data from MacroPolo, a think-tank, although 60% of the world’s best AI researchers work in America, over two-thirds of them are foreign (and over a quarter of them Chinese). In contrast, China draws overwhelmingly on domestic talent: almost all its best ai researchers are Chinese, and 70% of them have studied only in China.
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he West is ahead on biotech, cloud computing and AI
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China is dominant in some industries, such as 5G telecoms. It makes some 80% of the world’s lithium batteries.
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what is called juguo tizhi or the “whole-of-the-nation system”.
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China’s investments are also more co-ordinated.
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This calculation confirms that America maintains a slight edge (see chart 1), spending about $800bn or 3.8% of GDP in 2020. That compares to about $660bn in China after adjusting for differences in the cost of living, or 2.7% of gDP.
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Peter Thiel, a fabled investor, has argued that there has been too much investment in “bits” (software and analytics) and not enough in “atoms” (hardware and manufacturing).
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Private investment, meanwhile, doubled from 1% of GDP in 1979 to 2% in 2017. Giant tech firms such as Google, Facebook (now Meta), Amazon and Apple sprouted in America. China spawned similar titans, such as Alibaba, Baidu, JD.com and Tencent.
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Its spending peaked at 1.86% of GDP in 1964. But after the fall of the Berlin Wall federal spending on R&D fell well below 1% of gDP.
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“Technological innovation has become the main battlefield of the international strategic game,” said China’s president, Xi Jinping, in a speech last year to Chinese scientists. “We’re in a multi-generation era-defining competition against the ccp [Chinese Communist Party],” rhymes Mr Young, one of the sponsors of the Chips Act.
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The month before it passed the Chips and Science Act, which provides $52bn over five years for the semiconductor industry, some of which will incentivise private R&D.
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“It’s a total clamp down, trying to cut off every head of the hydra of China’s chip industry.”
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The anxiety is easy to understand. In 2008 China spent a third as much as America did on research and development (R&D) and about half as much as Europe, after adjusting for differences in the cost of living. By 2014 it had surpassed Europe. By 2020 its spending was 85% of America’s.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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China fears rule-making as a plot to stop it catching up.
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“When you are the weaker party, you cannot get a fair deal.”
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A truly desperate Russia might stop selling advanced arms to India and Vietnam, both rivals of China’s, and forget its previous disquiet about China playing a larger role in the Arctic.
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The Americans were too late: the prime minister, Manasseh Sogavare, signed the Chinese pact before they arrived. In August the islands announced a $66m Chinese loan to pay for Huawei, the Chinese telecoms giant, to build mobile-phone towers. In September Mr Sogavare defied public appeals from Australia, previously its closest partner, and delayed elections for a year, saying they clashed with a sports tournament.
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China has begun working with the IMF, the G20 and the Paris Club of creditors to help some low-income countries restructure crippling debts, among them Zambia. It has also recently struck a restructuring deal with Ecuador.
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China prefers to extend the terms of loans rather than write them off, often securing promises to give Chinese lenders a priority claim to revenues (as well as clauses to keep loan terms secret)
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In June a first cohort of 120 young cadres from six ruling parties in southern Africa attended a “leadership school” in Tanzania, opened with $40m in Chinese funding.
||Jovan|| another leadership school in Tanzania?
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A European diplomat asserts that Mr Xi is guided by a tianxia guan: an ancient world view with China at the centre, and the influence of Chinese civilisation radiating out to all compass points
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Confirmation bias was only part of the problem.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Without team-specific coaching and development, the work is indeed harder than it needs to be, and collaboration is less effective—so workloads become even heavier, making people feel even more overwhelmed and less able to pursue development and growth.
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I believe that Yoda’s type of wisdom exists on every team, but only when everyone’s input is openly shared.
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A replay may also be requested if it appears that a violation of the social contract—such as a back-channel conversation or an aggressive encounter—has occurred.
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Circulate the results in a shared document and then orally after reconvening the full team. Candor breaks can serve as a coaching mechanism: In time team members will begin spontaneously sharing their feedback.
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“Most important, they must be able to put their egos aside and assess themselves candidly.”
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No matter how sensitive the issue or how serious the criticism, members must feel free to voice their thoughts openly—though always constructively—and respond to critical input with curiosity, recognizing that it is a crucial step toward a better solution.
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Conflict avoidance can be corrosive, even deadly, causing teams to miss opportunities and needlessly exposing them to risk
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This ensures that the person responsible for the project has clear, well-documented input encompassing a variety of perspectives along with concrete offers of support and that by the time the project comes to fruition, it has been subject to rigorous examination and benefits from the full wisdom of the team.
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we have discovered that this courage and candor are sustained when the larger group reconvenes.
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People have more courage in small groups; they are less inhibited about critiquing ideas and weeding out weak ones.
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who will make the final decision.
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The aim is robust dialogue, not consensus
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Is this the highest performance we’re capable of?
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deeply committed to one anothe
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seekers, aware of and open about the areas in which we need to grow
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meet their goals and commitments
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not encumbered by hierarchy or control.
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does not have silos
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does not avoid conflict
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an unspoken agreement to avoid conflict
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have traditionally emphasized leadership competencies, not team competencies.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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the rising star of social media could find itself similarly thwacked.
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Spotify forks over a 15% commission on subscriptions purchased on iPhones—a tax so annoying that it has filed a complaint against Apple over it.
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reliance on distribution platforms that are not their own.
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low barriers to entry
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try to capitalise on network effects, as data on the listening and viewing habits of similar users promised to deliver an unbeatable product.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Many developing countries see nothing magic about the year 1945, and have limited nostalgia for a time when the West dominated rulemaking
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about foreigners who employ double standards to criticise other countries.
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even stronger memories of suffering at the hands of colonial powers
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explained why Europe’s dark past, notably the Holocaust, obliged its leaders to call out rights abuses, from China to Ukraine
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This was “power politics”, Mr Wang retorted: a bid to “replace commonly accepted international laws and norms with the house rules of a few countries”.
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a straw-man argument
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China hates to be isolated, deploying diplomats to lobby and twist arms to build support.
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A “shared future” is another way of saying “development first”, ie, rejecting any order guided by shared, universal values.
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a “Global Security Initiative” or “A Community of Shared Future for Mankind”
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Chinese leaders want to preserve elements of the current order that helped their country rise, such as world trade rules that fostered their export champions and encouraged inflows of foreign capital and technology
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Its officials liken Western powers to missionaries, bossily imposing their own values, a trait they call particularly alien to Asia, a continent that respects diversity.
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When its efforts meet resistance, it pushes for vaguer rules whose enforcement becomes a question of political bargaining. All too often, it seeks to revive old, discredited ways of running the world that put states first, at the expense of individual freedoms.
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Recipient governments are pushed into higher environmental standards or to protect the rights of vulnerable minorities.
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For decades tensions between national sovereignty and the protection of individuals lurked in the founding documents of this new order, from the UN Charter to the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.
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Recalling the economic disasters and human miseries that paved the way to world war, the framers of this order built the UN and other international institutions to promote co-operation and development.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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How China creates itsown institutions? How China applies unviersal values?
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Most of all, China wants outsiders to admire its development and the political system that has overseen it. If China is “a bit allergic to universal values”, he says, the problem is not the notion of all countries agreeing to basic principles. It is that some Western countries apply a “special connotation” to universal values and such terms as democracy, so as to criticise China and other developing countries. This makes China “very uncomfortable”, he says.
China is fine with unversal values, but have a problem with its applicaiton.
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He mentions relatively low education levels in Asia, and the risks of delaying good projects if local non-governmental groups—which have a right to speak out, he adds—are “hijacked by a very small group of people who put their very narrow interests above the community’s interests.”
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faraway lenders were slow to grasp how soon infrastructure projects would pay off in booming Asia, for instance.
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the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB)
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Scenario planning, which became popular in the 1970s, encouraged executives to consider multiple future states in assessing strategic investments, rather than rely on a single, deterministic forecast. Monte Carlo simulation went even further, specifying a probability distribution for each critical variable and then running thousands of simulations so that executives would focus on the distribution of potential outcomes as much as on any prediction of the most likely one. Real options analysis emerged as a further refinement in the 1980s, explicitly incorporating flexibility in the consideration of strategic investments.
this is a summary of three types of strategic thinking
||Jovan||
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scenario planning, Monte Carlo simulation, and real options analysis
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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||minam|| ||Jovan|| to develop tweet or follow-up on De Waal interview on primates and diplomacy.
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This is probably an example of kin selection, which favours the evolution of behaviour that assists the collateral passage of an individual’s genes alongside the more normal route of direct descent.
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This list is familiar to zoologists as comprising groups of species known to have developed, independently of one another, high levels of intelligence, both individual and social.
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Sometimes this bystander acted as a peacemaker, engaging with the aggressor and reducing the number of subsequent attacks compared with what might otherwise have been expected.
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Most conflicts ended in seconds, but some lasted a minute or two.
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“I like pigs,” Winston Churchill supposedly once said. “Dogs look up at us, cats look down on us, but pigs treat us as equals.”
Churchil on pigs.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Mr Xi may paint that as delivering yet more power to the people. His real aim is control.
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The law of shijia lianzuo dates back to the Qin dynasty, which ruled from 221BC to around 207BC. It called for a ten-family unit to be punished for offences committed by any member of the group. The baojia system, created in the 11th century during the Song dynasty, organised Chinese families in groups of ten for mutual monitoring and defence.
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It is a low-tech arm of a high-tech police state. Rwanda, a small African autocracy, has something similar.
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Mr Xi praises the Fengqiao model, which he has redefined as a way of empowering people. He talks of qunfang qunzhi, or “mass prevention and mass governance”. In reality he is using people to supplement the Communist Party’s other tools of control.
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Around 900 of its 65,000 residents were called out by their neighbours in public “denunciation rallies”.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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This is an interesting aricle of diplomatic potentials of Indonesia's culture.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Isaac Asimov
Isaac Asimov 'robots law'
||Jovan||
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.edu
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Advertisers are becoming more cautious, despite the pausing of a service introduced by Mr Musk that allowed anyone to buy a verified account, which led to problems with impersonation.
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Truth Social,
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Cohost
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Many are flocking to Mastodon, a decentralised social network founded in 2016 by Eugen Rochko, a German developer and its only employee.
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curator.diplomacy.edu curator.diplomacy.eduNo Title15
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There’s a man who could stop Twitter’s decline if he wanted to. And if we wanted to, we could consider what of Twitter we need to mourn, and what we might want to save or re-create.
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We’ve learned that everything is shocking, unbelievable, unprecedented—and, simultaneously, that nothing really matters.
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the way to be heard and make a difference is to amplify other ideas instead of coming up with our own, especially ideas that stoke lulz or predict a civilization-ending crisis
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Twitter taught us things
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But it’s most likely that Twitter will shamble on for a long time, like the Colosseum did, and we’ll never quite know if we’re participating in its glorious and hilarious finale. I actually think the prospect of Twitter’s rapid demise—in weeks or months—is functioning, right now, as fantasy.
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bid not to lose followers inevitably comes off as shamefully status-seeking, their pleas are often ignored.
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as pleas for the sake of some greater good or community.
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the way to be heard and make a difference is to amplify other ideas instead of coming up with our own.
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Hundreds of thousands of people's careers are now driven principally on Twitter. Many academics have built popular audiences entirely on Twitter, as well as enriched their professional networks.
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But if Twitter died, that devastation would be everywhere.
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But people like Jong-Fast—who hosts regular A-list parties at her multimillion-dollar Upper East Side apartment—have some prior networks of wealth and status to fall back on.
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In recent years, Twitter worked notably hard to ban menacing bots bought by regimes like Rwanda’s and Zimbabwe’s. And so it has made Moyo sad—and frightened—to notice a certain kind of hateful, pro-regime account reemerging after “the advent of Elon Musk.” Worse, he has noticed that some have come back with a blue check.
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Moyo credits his release to the global Twitter outcry his lawyer ignited. He also credits Twitter with preserving his sanity, which might surprise you. When Moyo’s lawyer visited him in prison, he’d always give Moyo a rundown of what people were saying on Twitter about his arrest.
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So they become “very prolific on Twitter. The only thing they have is Twitter. It’s a space for fantasy and for articulating despair.
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Zimbabwe
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